CALIBRATION EVIDENCE
League evidence pages
One page per league: probability calibration, market baselines and league facts — recomputed from settled matches only, aggregates only, misses included. Leagues qualify by sample size, not by how good they make us look.
| League | settled matches | model top pick hit (1X2) | market favourite hit (close) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Club Friendly | 4,503 | 53.3% | 56.2% | 2025-07-01 → 2026-05-20 |
| Spanish Bizkaia-Tercera Division | 3,437 | 49.4% | 51.4% | 2025-08-09 → 2026-06-21 |
| Italy Serie D | 2,318 | 45.6% | 47.4% | 2025-09-06 → 2026-06-06 |
| Germany Oberliga | 2,074 | 53.1% | 51.8% | 2025-07-18 → 2026-08-16 |
| Poland III Liga | 1,860 | 52.9% | 57.7% | 2025-08-01 → 2026-08-16 |
| Germany Regionalliga | 1,558 | 49.2% | 50.4% | 2025-07-24 → 2026-08-16 |
| Spain Segunda Division RFEF | 1,556 | 46.9% | 50.6% | 2025-09-06 → 2026-05-31 |
| Argentina Reserve League | 1,361 | 42.7% | 47.4% | 2025-07-01 → 2026-08-13 |
| Italy Serie C | 1,164 | 44.9% | 50.1% | 2025-08-22 → 2026-06-07 |
| Sweden Div 3 Mellersta | 1,068 | 46.1% | 48.8% | 2025-08-01 → 2026-08-16 |
| Spain Youth League | 1,026 | 55.8% | 57.7% | 2025-09-13 → 2026-05-21 |
| Norway Division 3 | 916 | 53.4% | 57.6% | 2025-07-02 → 2026-08-17 |
| Finland Kolmonen | 906 | 54.7% | 60.6% | 2025-07-01 → 2026-08-16 |
| Czech Republic Ceska Fotbalova Liga | 842 | 51.5% | 57.0% | 2025-08-01 → 2026-08-16 |
| Argentina Regional Federal Championships | 830 | 49.2% | 50.2% | 2025-07-05 → 2026-08-16 |
| Spain Primera Division RFEF | 772 | 46.6% | 51.8% | 2025-08-29 → 2026-06-20 |
| Brazil national youth (U20) Football Championship | 763 | 50.9% | 56.2% | 2025-07-01 → 2026-08-16 |
| Russian Second League Division B | 751 | 49.1% | 50.7% | 2025-07-02 → 2026-08-16 |
| Portugal Campeonato Nacional | 740 | 46.4% | 48.0% | 2025-08-09 → 2026-08-16 |
| Brazil Serie D | 730 | 42.7% | 50.1% | 2025-07-05 → 2026-08-16 |
| Austrian 3.Liga | 713 | 53.2% | 55.0% | 2025-07-30 → 2026-08-15 |
| Mexico Liga TDP | 691 | 57.6% | 64.3% | 2025-09-05 → 2026-05-29 |
| Austria Landesliga | 678 | 48.8% | 56.3% | 2025-08-01 → 2026-08-16 |
| Argentine Division 2 | 672 | 42.6% | 48.8% | 2025-07-05 → 2026-08-16 |
| International Friendly | 647 | 54.1% | 56.7% | 2025-07-01 → 2026-05-16 |